Economic development during the post crisis period (choosing a model)

The Message of the Head of the state to the people of Kazakhstan detailed plans for the development of the country for the foreseeable future (1). The existing economic crisis requires that our state temporarily suspend some ambitious projects and, as much as possible, to concentrate on the most urgent internal affairs, revealing and making anticipatory decisions for problems in the economic and social sphere.

It is logical that each new stage in the life of a country demands certain judgments and corresponding adjustments. Former sources of economic growth, as realities show, no longer give strong guarantees of development. It is therefore necessary to search for new sources of growth. During the post crisis period the Kazakhstan economy should move beyond finding a basic orientation and find a new place in the context of world labor division. It should become hi-tech and developed in all spheres. It should, therefore, lean on advanced achievements of science and technology, efficient control of economic processes and in education systems, which advance innovative thinking.

As a whole, for anti-recessionary purposes, over two billions seven hundred billions tenge was added to be directed to the national economy. These funds will be aimed at the formation, as much as possible, of an effective system of stimulus development and support of the social sector. And that is all at the expense of domestic, internal sources. Against the countries of Central Asia, and many other states of the post-Soviet territory leaving crisis, including at the expense of external loans, such policy unequivocally underlines powerful potential of possibilities of our republic.

Strengthening its own economy, Kazakhstan actively takes part in searching for ways to overcome the crisis internationally. In particular, our country together with the Russian Federation participates in realization of the project of joint anti-recessionary fund with the capital in ten billions dollars; the decision, on which establishment was accepted in December of last year at a meeting of heads of Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan in the Borovoe. Sign innovations were offered by the Head of the state in article «Keys from crisis», and also during II Astaninsky economic forum (2).

Now it is necessary to look at quality and the government maintenance in a new fashion. Concentration of attention and efforts to a qualitative state administration economy of Kazakhstan to tighten backs, to prepare people, administrative resources and an infrastructure for the future jerk during the post crisis period. The problem of perception of crisis as original examination which really and objectively will show in what the country is strong in what has succeeded is thus put, and it is necessary to concentrate special attention to what directions of development.

In present conditions the strict financial discipline and very rational, careful approach in use of public funds are required. As a whole expediently resolutely to reduce unnecessary costs and superfluous expenditure everywhere, except for social sphere. Today also it is really important to make special emphasis on consecutive development of the human capital.

I consider that social policy of Kazakhstan is obliged to increase in the basis a healthy economic kernel — gain mechanisms of the nation human capital. In the centre of any anti-recessionary programs there should be an ordinary citizen of Kazakhstan with its interests, problems and hopes. Only then the state will manage to direct energy of crisis on modernization. It appears, also is the major factor of social and economic processes, a course on complex development of the country in which the person with its vital interests is put, a family as a fundamental element of a society and a society as a uniform organism, for the sake of health and well-being exist both economy, power structures, and business.

During the difficult period nobody should remain in loneliness in the face of arising problems, here again, first of all, constant attention of the state to questions of employment, the help in workplace and training for a new profession search. And for this state plans to allocate not less than 140 billion tenge. As a whole for us waits responsible and hard work on strengthening of Kazakhstan and preparation of a reliable basis of a sustainable development during the post crisis period.

Growth and development –it is a thing far not the identical. Large escalating of scales of manufacture, notorious «gross national product per capita» is important any more. Economic growth – is a category of a leaving industrial epoch when development went mainly in a format of national economy. Globalization plus interaction of the industrial and postindustrial ways forming modern systems of quasi-national economies, is made by absolutely other system demands and criteria. Growth, and the qualitative increments increasing ability of economy to updating, to reaction to various external calls, to development in the conditions of sharply increased uncertainty becomes the main thing any more. In other words, accumulation of adaptable potential (development equal to potential), integrating the organizational, human, financial, innovative, technological and reflective components becomes the key factor, allowing national economy flexibly to adapt for dynamical changes of the world economy, internal and external calls, resource restrictions, and national corporations – successfully to operate in the conditions of a global competition.

Basically, any national economy is put today before a strategic choice. The first alternative: to form and develop adaptable potential (if for this purpose there are possibilities). It is rather expensive, but allows to realize own national projects and to keep national identity. The second alternative: to refuse escalating of adaptable potential, becoming «the younger partner» in relation to this or that leader. It more cheaply and liberates resources for industrial growth. A payment for the given prize is partial refusal of the sovereignty and this or that form of economic loading («the technological rent»). The third alternative: in general to play by other rules, leaning against those or other resources (social, geopolitical, natural, etc.). This variant demands social mobilization (which efficiency is doubtful in modern conditions) and is fraught with the raised conflictness.

Border between the first and the second variants – first of all in overcoming possibility of “a competitiveness threshold” which in development process of technologies, the human capital, organization forms becomes more and more high and difficultly surmountable. Border between the second and third variants – available potential, readiness of elite for its mobilization and use for modernized break.

The world is in great need in an establishment of new system of the relations, new global “game rules” and control mechanisms. Promotion of two met projects became reaction to it. The first – financial globalization as the tool of an establishment of a new order and the control, justified new institutes over national regulations. The second – mobilization of civilized resources and creation on this basis civilized development enclaves.

Formation of new financial mechanisms will essentially complicate escalating of adaptable potential for the countries having raw specialization. As fastening of the world prices for oil in a range 18-22 dollars for barrel (Urals) that on 15-20% below level of last one and a half-two year is in the foreseeable future probable. At the same time Kazakhstan has received unique possibility to carry out wide maneuver in the economic policy, aimed at modernization and escalating of innovative and adaptable potential – as today formation of a new steady world order is impossible without its active participation. The geopolitical format of a new world order should be supported with an adequate geo-economics format. In other words, “use” Kazakhstan as stability factor on the Eurasian space assumes, at least:

- Economic integration strengthening on space of the CIS;

- Removal of restrictions for integration in western, first of all European, economy “the Way to Europe” (3);

Today the Kazakhstan economy is not ready to such role. Transition to a high-grade mode of economic development assumes realization, at least, following conditions.

1) There should be a mechanism of the expanded interaction of industrial manufacture, incomes and a final demand (manufacture generates incomes; incomes, having passed on distribution and redistribution channels, form a final demand; final demand growth defines scales of expansion of manufacture). Now such mechanism for a variety of causes is absent.

2) The consensus of elite and leading social groups concerning the purposes of development and ways of their achievement is required. Development is always accompanied structural fragile, redistribution of resources, differentiation increase between economy segments, territories, social groups. The prize of one is accompanied by loss, at least relative, others. It, in particular, assumes clear characteristics of prospect: that concrete social groups, what price of growth and who will pay this price will win from economic growth of this or that type.

3) Vital prospects of mass social strata and groups, status possibilities, strategic interests should be closed on the development purpose. There should be new mechanisms of vertical social mobility. Only in such environment constructive enterprise motivations, investment impulses, social partnership are shown.

4) Formation of groups of the interconnected manufactures and the institutes forming system integrity, – possessing not only powerful potential of growth, but also sufficient critical weight for qualitative transformation of economy as a whole is necessary.

5) It is necessary to find a harmonious combination between economic development and embedding in process of economic globalization. The model of economic development is simultaneously and model of definition of a dominant of geo-economics orientation of the country, realization of its comparative advantages, “playing” of its strategic resource in a world economy format.

6) At last, mobilization of structural, technological and social sources of increase of efficiency becomes not only the precondition, but also the growth maintenance, one of its key reference points. It is required to find institutional, economic and organizational forms of integration of industrial and postindustrial ways, creations of national innovative system (which today simply is not present) and its inclusions in contours of the expanded reproduction. The main result of a crisis wave should be – formation of new model of economy, with new resources and growth restrictions. To form a contour of the expanded reproduction which from outside demand will lean against population consumption, and from outside offers – on manufacture of consumer goods (mainly in a sheaf “agriculture – the food - processing industry”). Communication search between system characteristics of economy (rates of increase, inflation, export, import, reserves, the monetary offer, budgetary deficiency, proficiency and others) and restoration of logic of development of economy as difficult organized whole is for this purpose necessary (4).

- I - space of self-organizing and development of economic system;

- II - space of actualization of economic threats;

- III - Space of activity of the economic subject.

- A-A (crossing I and II) - space of variants of economic development taking into account actualization of threats;

- B-B (crossing I and III) - space of a reflex ion of threats by operating and regulating subject;

- C-C (crossing II and III) - space of operated influences on economy;

- A-B-C (crossing I, II and III) - space of possible constructive variants of development of economy. Thus, in Kazakhstan should be, 2 scenarios are developed:

1) The power-raw scenario (the scenario of catching up development innovative support of thermal power station, atomic power station development, following to modern innovative trends);

2) Innovatively active scenario (creation of the innovative environment and aspiration to technological leadership creation and realization of projects, nanotechnology and another).

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. Ключи от кризиса // Казахстанская правда. – 2 февраля, 2009.

2. Послание президента РК народу Казахстана «Через кризис к обновлению и развитию» // Казахстанская правда. - 06 марта 2009 г.

3. Указ о Государственной программе «Путь в Европу» на 2009-2011 годы. // Астана, Акорда, 29 августа 2008 года, №653

4. Белоусов А.Р. Экономический рост в посткризисный период: макроэкономический анализ// Презентация на Летней школе «Экономический рост, факторы, источники. Мировой опыт и повестка дня для России. - 2003.